The Construction & Capital Podcast

If you took just one number out of London property in 2026, it would be £650 per square foot. That is the line Molior identifies as the binary divide between viable and undeliverable for residential schemes across Greater London. Below it the maths does not work. Above it schemes are being built.

The most striking implication: of the 281,000 unbuilt consented homes across the 33 London boroughs, only 119,200 sit above the threshold. The other 162,000 are effectively undeliverable on current economics — more than half of London's planned housing stock sitting on consents that will not translate into deliveries.

Lenders are not negotiating the line. They are using it as a yes-or-no filter on the GDV input row of every appraisal that comes through the door. This is the eight-minute deep dive on how it became a hard filter, where the line falls borough by borough, and the three forces that could move it through 2026.

0:05  — The single most important number in London property

0:55  — How the threshold became a hard filter

1:55  — The three pressures that pushed the marginal scheme below the line

2:50  — Where the line falls borough by borough

4:20  — What the threshold means for capital structures

5:50  — The three forces that could move £650 through 2026 and 2027

7:10  — What this means for site acquisition decisions

7:55  — Resources and sign-off

·       £650/sqft — the binary line between viable and undeliverable

·       281,000 — total unbuilt London consents across 33 boroughs

·       119,200 — consented homes above the line

·       162,000 — consented homes below the line

·       22% — UK build cost increase since Q1 2022

·       3.75% — Bank of England base rate (December 2025 cut)

·       −3.3% — Greater London YoY house price index (Feb 2026)

·       −10.8% to −11.2% — prime central falls (Westminster, Kensington & Chelsea)

·       1.9% — new-build share of total Greater London transaction activity

·       £30–£80/sqft — value of policy uplift on the right scheme

·       18,000–25,000 — homes that would re-enter financeability with 50–75bp rate cuts

Walthamstow +5.9% — the lead outperformer: 

Redbridge +5.3% — the Elizabeth Line corridor: 

Bromley +3.0% — town-centre regeneration: 

Kensington & Chelsea −11.2%: 

Development finance: https://constructioncapital.co.uk/services/development-finance

Mezzanine finance: https://constructioncapital.co.uk/services/mezzanine-finance

Bridging: https://constructioncapital.co.uk/services/bridging-loans

Construction Capital deal room — indicative terms within 24 hours: https://constructioncapital.co.uk/deal-room

Construction Capital homepage: https://www.constructioncapital.co.uk

The full episode covers the £650/sqft viability cliff, inner vs outer London divergence, prime-core falls, the Elizabeth Line corridor, regen platforms, the 36,000-home Royal Docks pipeline, London PBSA, BTR collapse, NPPF reform, the Time-Limited Planning Route, grey belt release, and the full London capital stack.

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